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Fire Weather
February 12, 2025
 
As the old year ended, we celebrated part of the holiday season with close-by daughter and grandchildren and intermittently spent time online with more far-flung offspring. The new year began quietly, our Wisconsin and Florida daughters and their families settled into post-holiday employment and pre- and post-graduate schooling. Our son in California left home for a short Asian holiday, enjoyed wrestling events in Japan and wandered briefly in Taiwan. I didn't hear from them often but, as usual, I calmly checked up occasionally on whatever localities they were experiencing. It didn't take long to raise my continental anxiety level.
 
Big storms were predicted for coastal Florida—we'd experienced some in our most recent autumn visits there—and I scanned the news daily, mostly to relief. But then, barely a week into January, alarming news about fierce fires in familiar California locales sent me online several times a day to locate where they were emerging and how they were expanding. The fires were widespread, though when I found our son's neighborhood on whatever telecast maps I located, I was at least briefly reassured. I couldn't know how much he learned in Asia about the Los Angeles fires, which were still raging when he soon returned home, but he then reported that his neighborhood was safe. Until the fires were finally subdued, and rainstorms eventually reassured us of their unlikely resurgence, I still checked in daily, mostly calming whenever he told us what conditions were like nearer to him. His neighborhood avoided the most ferocious blazes of the multiple fires surrounding it, but even after he was confirmed safe, I couldn't stop thinking about them.
 
By chance, among end-of-year birthday/Christmas giftbooks, I'd received John Vaillant's recent Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World. Reviewer Robert Macfarlane describes it as "a landmark in nonfiction reportage on the Anthropocene, or what Vaillant here calls 'the Petrocene'—that epoch defined primarily by humanly enhanced combustion." In a recent book of my own, I'd tried to replace the familiar term 'Holocene' with the more appropriate 'Anthropocene' but Fire Weather soon convinced me that 'Petrocene' should be the more accurate term. I quickly became deeply immersed in the book.
 
For me, Fire Weather was a long read: 359 pages of text in small print in three parts, with nearly fifty additional pages of Notes and Bibliography. The narrative's primary setting is Fort McMurray, a once thriving oil industry community in Alberta Province, due north of Montana between British Columbia and Saskatchewan, In May 2015 a tremendous fire devastated the area, sweeping over a vast portion of Alberta and some of Saskatchewan for several days. Vaillant sets up the background of the oil industry there in Part One, provides a deeply detailed account of the fires throughout Part Two, and in Part Three gives us an expansive overview of the future the oil industry and Canada's climate will have to face. I confess I was alarmed throughout the book's first two sections, continually in suspense over the fire's expanding growth and consequences, and then, in the third section, constantly distressed over implications regarding the future we all face because of the approach to climate that we've been engineering throughout the Anthropocene Epoch we're living in.
 
In the past, I suspect, most of us who decided to read about some calamity or another tended to approach the event as something occurring distantly, something one-of-a-kind, notable for its power and its scale but essentially remote from the rest of the world—from the daily living most of us experience. Vaillant acknowledges that, until recently, such stories were seen "as glimpses of a frightening and aberrant event outside normal time, in a place safely far away." He now suggests that they were—and are—"in fact . . . messages from the near future and from very close to home" and asserts that "extraordinary changes have taken place across the entire climate file": atmosphere, energy, forestry, and especially "fire itself". He reports that "a host of states and countries"—he specifically names 32 places from South Africa to North America, from Europe to Australia—where people would find themselves living in a landscape susceptible to fire. "Since 2016, even places we never considered capable of burning"—he mentions the Arctic, the Amazon, the moors of Britain, Notre-Dame Cathedral, Boulder, Colorado—have caught fire and burned.
 
Reporting on the history of the "kind of disruption" occurring "in the context of drought and rainfall," Vaillant informs us that it is "now referred to as a 'phase shift': a dramatic, effectively irreversible change in a region's climate regime. There is abundant evidence that phase shifts are now under way across much of the planet." The example of fire behavior he offers comes from California: "in the 1950s, the state's fire season lasted about four months; today, it is effectively year-round, and the acreage burned during the most severe seasons (1950 versus 2020) has increased eightfold (to say nothing of lives and property lost)." "In New Mexico," he adds, "fire weather days have increased by 120 percent since 1973." His book was published before the January 2025 fires in California.
 
The most discouraging aspect of fire's increasing presence and possibility is that, from a historical perspective, there was a time when fire at such a scale did not take place and only the intervention of human industry and the exploitation of natural resources have brought us to a time in history when reversing the climate change that we persist in keeping in motion may be impossible. Even if we stopped the relentless development of industry, we've likely gone too far to change its potential impact. The Anthropocene, the period of Earth history overwhelmed by human exploitation of natural resources, has probably actually become the Petrocene; the chemical impact on the climate everywhere has overwhelmed the period when people had charge and could have made better choices. In America, as confirmation, the current president has vowed to concentrate on industry and has thoroughly dismissed climatology.
 
Despite how troubled I am by what it portends, Fire Weather is a book everyone should read. As my grandchildren set out into the world of grownups—one will graduate from university this year, one will become a college sophomore, one become a freshman in the fall—I try not to cast my imagination too often into the future of the world they—and their children and their grandchildren—will be living in. For a while still, that's where, attentively, I'll be also be living.
 
Notes:
O'Connor, M. R., "Line of Fire," The New Yorker February 3, 2025: 12-16. An Annals of Disaster essay.
 
Vaillant, John. Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2024: 252, 354-355.
 
 
 

Time's Passage

Recent family events have made me relentlessly aware of time's passage. In Illinois one Sunday we gathered with family and friends to recall our son-in-law's late father, hear brief comments from his children, and share unconcealed sorrow. Over the past two decades he and I had spent some time together at family events. Back in Wisconsin we heard reports about the declining health of my stepdaughter's grandmother in Michigan, who had been a widow for a decade or more, and within days, she too died. Granddaughter and her husband both wrestled with their own and with each another's grief.

 

That Sunday Sue and I left for Michigan's Leelanau Peninsula, crossing Lake Michigan by car ferry from Milwaukee to Muskegon. Over the past several years we had vacationed in Leland with Sue's siblings and their families and our Florida grandchildren and their parents. My wife and her siblings had grown up on the southern portion of that shoreline, the connection that had led to the annual northern outings in Leland. Sue's twin brother had spilled his wife's ashes into Lake Michigan there a few years earlier, as they had released their younger sister's ashes into the lake long before, and now his siblings, his children, and his grandchildren had gathered one last time to free his ashes there. This was likely a final physical visit to that past.

 

My brother-in-law had been in his late 70s. In recent years he had tended to his daughters and their daughters—all five between mid-teens and pre-school—and to his son and daughter-in-law. They all were close to him, their grief sincere and deep. I'd known him for forty-two years, but the youngest granddaughter had known him much more intimately. The dispersal of his ashes was a highly charged event.

 

Two days later we drove and sailed back home, each constantly reminded of family losses over our lifetimes. Memories resurfaced of past funerals and past burials and lost presences in our lives. I kept comparing the grief of the youngest granddaughters I'd witnessed on the lake with what I could remember of my own reactions to family losses.

 

My family has long been depleted. I have no memory of my father's mother, who died just after I turned five, but I do recall his father, who lived into my teens, and his siblings, whose families we visited annually—his older brother predeceased my father by many years, his younger sister outlived him by a decade and a half. My mother's family had mostly lived in the county we did, her father dying first, then my mother dying long before her mother, before my father, and before her three brothers. I knew my grandmother's siblings too and believe I spent some time with her parents and others in both generations, though my great-grandparents made little impression on me.

 

Some images arise as I write this—a farmhouse in the countryside with a woodstove in its center; a small church on a back-country road and my memory of attending a funeral there in a summer sportcoat and tie (undoubtedly tied by my clothing-salesman father); my mother's funeral, my grandmother's, my father's, my aunt's. I remember cousins, all younger than me, and know that in each family I'm related to by blood at least one cousin has died, sometimes two. There are later generations, of course, and thanks to Facebook I am often aware of those generations, can recognize them from their on-screen images, and vaguely know how my widowed aunts and step-grandmother are faring. We are now all widely scattered, and I physically see only my own children and grandchildren occasionally.

 

So, what am I doing here? The one constant in my existence—in everyone's—is the persistence of change across the passage of time. No matter who you are, no matter how interactive, how social, how engaged you might be with others, the heart of your circumstance is always solitary. The people who brought you into the world, the people who helped you adjust to living in it, the people you yourself brought into the world and the people they later brought into the world, the persons you may have partnered with throughout the passage of time—at base each and everyone of them is a single entity, a solitary being adjusting to who they are and to the constantly changing presence and/or absence of each entity they once interacted with.

 

Appreciating what you've gained across your time here is rewarding; accepting what you've lost is always challenging; recognizing the inevitability of losing everything you've gained, including yourself, is—eventually—unavoidable. Helping those who followed you to appreciate what they've gained and could still gain might help them better accept what they've lost when you and the generations before you are gone.

 

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